Tuesday, November 20, 2007

News and Analysis 11/20/07

The FBI has reported that hate crimes in the U.S. rose 8% in 2006. Of 7,720 "single-bias incidents," 51.8% were "racially motivated." Hate crimes are a minor issue, however, compared to the fact that the income gap between blacks and whites has grown in the last 30 years. And it's no surprise: what is sometimes mythologized as a post-civil rights period of ascent towards equality has really been one of retrenchment and backlash. From tax-based school funding to the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush prison boom, the policy of the U.S. government toward black and brown America since the 1970s has been one of racial neoliberalism.

Since Hurricane Katrina, many have warned that white elites will attempt to 'whitewash' New Orleans demographically and politically as well as economically. Well, this is exactly what is happening. The NY Times reports that the New Orleans City Council is now majority white for the first time in two decades.

The death toll from the cyclone in Bangladesh last week, initially calculated at around 1,000, has now been lifted to 3,100. In the most affected districts of the country, according to CBC, up to "70 percent of of homes — mostly made of mud and bamboo — have been partially or completely destroyed, while an estimated 300,000 hectares of crops were lost in the storm." The death toll numbers are probably low, however. From Bangladesh's Daily Star: Pounded Patharghata now a valley of death

The official death count for the upazila, until Saturday, was 307. But even a cursory examination on the ground, witness reports, and simply from the number of mass graves, the death toll is well over 3,000. Cut off from the rest of the country, the upazila was accessible only by air or a long-route by the sea. The approach road was blocked by fallen trees and power-lines, preventing any relief vehicle from entering within a 40-kilometre area.The corpses were found wrapped in paddy sheaves on rice fields, emanating heavy stench of rotting flesh. Most of the bodies were found one or two kilometres from where their homes had been. Some bodies lay tangled on tree branches, some were lining the shore, some unidentified were just left to rot. Sidr rose out of the southern-most village of Patharghata -- Padma. First, it took out a five-kilometre stretch of homes that had been built on the slope of a long mud-baked embankment lining the border of the village. In its wake, a 20-feet tidal surge wiped out the entire community. The tide swept the houses and most of its inhabitants, carrying them two to three kilometres inland. Most of the corpses were found three, sometimes four villages away. In one small pocket, where a 100-metre stretch of the embankment was damaged by a previous flood, the tidal surge wreaked its greatest havoc.The tide broke through the embankment and channelled all of its awesome power through that 100-metre gap razing all of at least 50 homes in one clean sweep.The power of the deadly tidal surge is evident by the vanishing of the big mosque building, made of bricks and concrete, which used to occupy a section of that small pocket."We were about to run to the shelter my mother, my wife, two nephews, and I when we saw the great big wave. I looked up and up and there was no end to it. It swept us up and I grabbed the first tree trunk that I could find," said Delwar, one of the rare survivors from the ill-fated 50 homes. The rest of his family died. At least 135 corpses from that small pocket of Padma village were found till Saturday morning.Similar ghastly stories were found in three other villages along the Baleshwar river, in Rohita, Tangra, and Gouharpur. With at least 400 corpses from Padma village alone, the death toll was rising and no one knew or dared to imagine what it was.

Some 20,000 people protested the School of the Americas at Fort Bening, Georgia yesterday. The School of the Americas, like Philip Morris (now Altria), has renamed itself in an attempt to shed bad publicity. It now calls itself the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation. Indeed, the SOA is so notorious that 203 members of the U.S. House of Representatives voted to close it in June, but came up six votes short of the majority.

Run by the U.S. Department of Defense, the SOA has been a major conduit of state terror in Latin America since 1946. SOA graduates include a long rogues' gallery of military dictators and death squad commanders. To name just a few, graduates of the SOA are implicated in atrocities in Argentina (Leopoldo Galtieri, Roberto Viola), Bolivia (Hugo Banzer), Peru (Vladimiro Montesinos), Panama (Omar Torrijos, Manuel Noriega), Guatemala (José Efraín Ríos Montt), Honduras (Policarpo Paz Garcia, Aquilino Sorto Gonzalez, and many others), El Salvador (Roberto D'Aubuisson, Jose Guillermo Garcia, and many others). And this merely scratches the surface, as at least 63,000 Latin American military personnel have been trained in the school, averaging 700-1,000 students a year.

Even the most ardent ex-Cold Warriors, quick to defend all U.S.-backed state repression between 1917 and 1989 as a justifiable counter to "the threat of communism" (the same arguments are now recycled for Uribe, Mubarak, Musharraf, Arroyo...) cannot defend the documented slaughter of 200,000 Mayan indian civilians, the assassination of archbishops and trade unionists, the torture and rape of teenage girls and nuns.

Even if most Americans do not understand the role of the U.S. government in arming, training and funding thugs and killers in other countries, the populations of those countries do. And those on the recieving end of chemical weapons, coups, proxy invasions and nuclear weapons are likely to percieve U.S. foreign policy a bit differently from those who get their news from MSNBC, CNN and FOX.

Similarly, for most Kenyans the phrase "Mau Mau" conjures up savagery of the white British kind, rather than of the black African kind. Read more!

Saturday, November 17, 2007

News and Commentary for 11/17/07

The U.S. Congress has passed the U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement. Among the provisions: removal of duties on some 80% of U.S. exports to Peru, including subsidized cotton, corn and wheat (which will drive more Peruvian farmers off the land); expanded rights to drill in the Peruvian Amazon (which is why Occidental Petroleum, for example, has been lobbying hard for the FTA); and the greater opening of Peru's urban commercial sectors to foreign competition (hence the enthusiasm of Wal-Mart, Citibank, and others).

Brazil may purchase a nuclear submarine to "protect" the massive offshore oil reserves recently discovered at Tupi.

Speaking of nukes, the always-perceptive Azmi Bishara has written a good op-ed piece on Hiroshima and the Machiavellian logic of U.S. elites.

A massive cyclone hit Bangladesh on Thursday, killing a reported 1,100 people. Some 650,000 coastal villagers have fled to shelters, and 150 fishing trawlers are unaccounted for. The cyclone caused the power system in much of Bangladesh to collapse, leaving millions without power. This also led to a disruption in piped water supplies, as pumps could not be started.

The water problems in Bangladesh are a reminder of the complex supply chains and interdependencies that make urban life possible. The water crisis in Atlanta is another such reminder.

Climate Change and Water Wars

Tom Engelhardt's points out in this article that severe droughts are simultaneously afflicting the southern and midwestern U.S., North Africa, southeastern Europe, Mexico and Australia. Speculating about the possibility of mass migrations and resource conflicts over water in the U.S., he asks why the topic of water security--and what will happen if drought conditions take hold in major cities like Atlanta--is rarely broached in the U.S. media.

The IPCC impact assessments suggest that, even by conservative projections, there will be reductions in crop production in the most populous rural areas on the planet over the next few decades. But we have no reason to believe in convervative projections: U.S. carbon emissions are not only growing, their rate of growth is accelerating, and is predicted to continue to accelerate.

While there may actually be a boost in food production in parts of the U.S. due to climate change, in much of the farm belt food production will decrease. The IPCC 4th Assesment Report predicts:

"By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas. [...] Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase the risk of hunger. Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease. [...] Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to
affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes."

Two things need to be noted here: 1) these "subsistence sectors in low latitudes" include the most densely populated parts of coastal Asia, Africa and Latin America; and 2) increases of 1-2°C (under which "crop productivity is projected to decrease" in these regions) are at the low end of moderate IPCC predictions for temperature increases. So a fall in crop productivity in most of the world, most dangerously in the bread baskets of the southern hemisphere, is virtually assured. And this despite the fact that, at current growth rates, world population is expected to "crest" at 9 billion by 2050 . Unequivocally, then, anyone who advocates "business as usual" is advocating mass death.

Unfortunately, in a culture where possessive individualism is exalted by all-pervasive private and state propoganda as the highest collective aim, action on climate change might require its effects being "brought home" to the global north through drought and wildfires. As long there is a perceived geographical split between the greatest per capita carbon emitters and the greatest victims of climate change, it is likely that popular pressures will remain weak.
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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Bottlenecks, Supply-Demand Crises, and Rising Food and Oil Prices

As Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen pointed out in his 1971 classic The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, all forms of production and consumption are ultimately tributaries of solar energy flow captured through mining, forestry and agriculture. Despite the vast diversity of output in the global economy—from art to artillery—the main inputs are relatively simple: fossil fuels, minerals, timber and food (especially grains).

One of the results of the Industrial Revolution was to tie food production to fossil fuel inputs. The supply-demand dynamics of food and oil (and the distortions of cartels and subsidies) are as inseparable in industrial capitalism as air is from water in the atmosphere. And now the atmospheric effects of fossil fuel inputs since 1750 could reduce yields of rice, wheat and corn by as much as a third in Asia, Africa and Latin America(where the overwhelming majority of subsistence farmers now live).

These news stories from the last few days capture the interrelated dynamics of food production, oil consumption and climate change:

Global Food Crisis Looms as Climate and Fuel Shortages Bite
Rising Food Prices To Hit Consumption
Frenzy in the Markets as Oil Heads for $100 a Barrel
IEA Sounds Alarm Over Huge Energy Demands
High-Prices Oil Adds Volatility to Power Scramble

To see how these interrelationships work, look no further than the U.S. corn industry. As Michael Pollan shows in The Omnivore's Dilemma, the seeming diversity of products in U.S. supermarkets is largely corn-based. Corn-based sweeteners have replaced cane sugar in most U.S. soft drinks; U.S. bacon, eggs, milk and hamburgers (through corn-based pig, chicken and cattle-feed) ultimately come from corn. Corn is used in 2,500 out of 10,000 products sold in the average U.S. supermarket. This dietary monopoly is made possible through obscenely large subsidies ($51.3 billion from 1995 to 2005), about 63% of which go to the top 10% of enterprises, the main suppliers of corporate processors like Cargill and Archer Daniel's Midland. In fact, 3 or 4 corporations control 81% of corn exports in the U.S., 60% of the grain handling facilities, 61% of flour milling, and 49% of ethanol production.

The result (a real irony considering the anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S. corn belt) is an export subsidy to the agribusiness giants of over $100 million annually to dump U.S. corn on the Mexican market under the neoliberal NAFTA rules. According to the Mexican government itself, U.S. corn dumping has driven around 2 million Mexican farmers off the land. CAFTA is now bringing this dynamic to Guatemala, Honduras and other signatories with small corn farmers.


Besides fuelling poverty in Latin America and obesity in the U.S., this subsidized corn production is fragile, because it's overwhelmingly oil-based. On average, 10 calories of fossil fuel energy are burned for every 1 calorie of food energy produced in the U.S. The fertilizers, the tractors, the processing equipment, the refrigerated trucks, the plastic packaging and grocery bags: all require oil.

The intimate connection of oil and food inputs at the base of the global economy means that changes in supply and demand affect both. We see this in rising food and oil prices worldwide, reported side by side by the Financial Times today:
To be continued...






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